20 comments
pennyd2
pennyd2

@naheitzeg @Shoq @ppppolls But where does PPP report both as separate numbers and then how do the reconcile them back for apples to apples?

EricBogan
EricBogan

Nancy, thank you so much for this important piece. What I am most troubled by regarding these polls and the false narratives they engender, is the willingness of too many on our side of the isle to accept these national polls, with their LV/RV screens that are  WAY beyond historical trends(differences has been only 2.5 percent, not the 7-10 pt. swings we are witnessing this election cycle)as the gospel. These polls are simply not reflective of what's happening on the ground, esp. in the 'battleground states'.

Seeta
Seeta moderator

This is superbly done Nancy. You've outdone yourself. The media and polling groups have long been in bed with each other in order to drive manufactured narratives, ratings and profit. If we received more transparency in how the polls are conducted, most of the polling outfits would be out of business. They are businesses and they've got to justify their existence. Excellently done. Going to this a second look when I get home.

KayWhitlock
KayWhitlock

Thank you, Nancy.  This is like a house of mirrors.  In all the elections I've been through, and I've been through a lot, I've never seen anything quite like this.  I do believe that Koch, Rove & Co. are making an astonishing effort to drive the media narratives.  And none of the MSM or major polling folks or interpreters are tearing out the guts of the poll samples and internals to see if it makes sense.

 

For example, a new Mason Dixon (!) poll shows Romney up big in Florida.  But look closely, and they also say Latinos are breaking for Romney - and that, my friends, is not possible.  Also, the Latino sample is virtually all Cuban American.  Not true for the state as a whole.

 

My question:  how does any of this intersect with voter suppression efforts?  I think we can't know for awhile. 

 

nancy a heitzeg
nancy a heitzeg

 @blkunity Perfect video :) Thank you

 

and yes white supremacy is the bad root of this all.. more on that soon

nancy a heitzeg
nancy a heitzeg

 @EricBogan thank you Eric and Amen

 

In addition,  the unbelievable Presidential race swings are also not reflected in the down ticket races for Senate and the House..

 

None of it hangs together

nancy a heitzeg
nancy a heitzeg

 @Seeta t have to say seeta that  read 538 every day as well  as all  the comments on every post., there are a growing Daily!! -  set of questions - like i have raised in this post -- about the soundness of various poll fundametals and the prediction models which rely on them

 

btw this was an interesting piece today

http://www.cabpolitical.com/2012/10/12/so-whats-really-going-on-in-north-carolina-and-the-race-nationally/

 

those who want up to the minute analysis should follow @JeffersonObama on twitter

nancy a heitzeg
nancy a heitzeg

 @Seeta thank you seeta..

 

i am forever in your debt for this space

 

and yes to all you have siad --m never seen it be quite so  dramatic before though.. People need to just turn this all off -- trust their instincy=ts as Joe Biden said and GOTV

nancy a heitzeg
nancy a heitzeg

 @KayWhitlock that poll and many others are misleading because of the samples

 

and yes - there i have long believed a link between sampling and MOE going in and voter suppression schemes

 

GOTV in massive #s in the the antidote

pennyd2
pennyd2

@naheitzeg @Shoq @ppppolls Thank you!

Seeta
Seeta moderator

 @nancy a heitzeg  @JeffersonObama totally agree, Nancy -- refreshing to see folks questioning the polls -- I've seen it as well on MSM sites like NYT and WP.  Much gratitude for this analysis and expose -- "Citizens United" and a failed fourth estate have created the Romney ascendancy and reinforced oligarchy.  

 

It is all about GET OUT THE VOTE from this point forward.  

 

Historically, debates have not impacted or transformed the race.  MSM milking political theater (and that's what it is) to sell soap -- nothing else.

EricBogan
EricBogan

 @nancy a heitzeg  @Seeta  @JeffersonObama  Nancy, I agree @ Jefferson Obama,he really cuts thru the b.s.  and drills down the polling like no other. BTW, I really don't believe that one debate can be a 'game changer' as alot of these pollsters and MSM types are saying. I stand by my orig. comments re: facts on the ground.

Seeta
Seeta moderator

 @nancy a heitzeg gratitude to you for gracing this space and your always on-point, insightful analyses.  

 

This is a must read piece to expose our collapsed fourth estate.  We've got to do the work ourselves -- debunk propaganda, focus on substance, organize and GET OUT THE VOTE.  Time is of the essence.  

 

Three weeks people.

EricBogan
EricBogan

@nancy a heitzeg@Seeta No prob Nancy, I love your posts on TPV. I will leave you with a Jefferson Obama tweet: 

Jeff Gauvin ‏@JeffersonObama

Pollsters acknowledge Obama has a huge Registered Voter advantage in battleground states but wipe out 7 Point leads with +8 LV Screens

 

Don't believe the hype.

 

nancy a heitzeg
nancy a heitzeg

 @EricBogan  @Seeta i am happy to say as i look around that a growing number of people the sentiment about "The Black Swan" debate..

 

it just doesn't not wash,, the more ??s asked the more awareness the better

 

and thnaks again for being here Eric