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PDFFrom AmericanProspect:
The percentage of Hispanics in Arizona has remained steady since then, at around 30 percent, but the voting age population has increased to 845,000, and now constitutes 19 percent of Arizona residents of voting age, up from 17 percent in 2008. What’s more, intense Republican antagonism—through intrusive, draconian laws—have thoroughly alienated Hispanic voters.
All of this is to say that conditions have moved Arizona to the column of states which are “in play,” and recent polls bear that out. For example, in its latest survey of the state, Public Policy Polling found that President Obama is tied with Mitt Romney at 47 percent support, a 5 point improvement since November of last year. PPP’s Tom Jensen doubts that Obama would actually be able to beat Romney, but—all things equal—a lot of that depends on the composition of the electorate. 15 percent of the residents surveyed by PPP identified as Hispanic, and of that number, 64 percent approve of Obama. If the Hispanic share of the Arizona electorate were to match its share of the voting age population, there’s a good chance that Obama would win.
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